An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has confirmed that it expects Libya’s hydrocarbons output to increase to 1.5 million bpd over the next two years.

The IMF mission’s concluding statement predicted a GDP growth of eight per cent in 2024, following an estimated 10 per cent growth in 2023 mainly due to rebound in oil production.

The statement noted that tropical storms in Eastern Libya in 2023, which led to catastrophic damage and tragic loss of life, only had a ‘muted’ effect on GDP growth. Similarly, the economy ‘remained shielded from the impact of the conflict in Gaza and the Red Sea’.

Energy exports account for 96% of total exports in Libya, underlining the importance of oil production to the country. Figures published by OPEC in April show that Libya is now Africa’s top oil producing country, recording 1.24 million bpd in March.

The IMF, in its concluding statement, noted that Libya’s longer-term strategy should aim to diversify away from hydrocarbons, and capitalise on Libya’s comparative advantages, including its location, landmass and natural resources to promote non-oil activity.

It noted that a plan is needed to scale up development spending to ‘alleviate growth bottlenecks and reduce fiscal costs.’

Significant progress is already being made in tapping into the country’s resources. The NOC launched its ‘Think Tomorrow’ campaign last year at COP28 in Dubai, aimed at achieving a green and sustainable future in Libya by adopting environmentally friendly practices.

A number of international companies have also expressed interest in Libyan renewables projects.

At Eltumi Partners we are ideally placed to advise companies looking to explore opportunities in hydrocarbons and renewables in Libya and the wider region.

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